A little while ago, I asked my friends and followers on social media a simple question. ‘What science fiction books from the twenty-first century due you genuinely believe will be remembered as classics in fifty years’ time?‘
I’ve included some of the raw data at the bottom of this post, but it’s a lot of numbers for the casual reader, so I’m going to go against tradition and discuss my thoughts and findings first.
Clearly, my sample size is too small to be in any way comprehensive, but I think there is enough of a spread in the responses to draw some initial conclusions.
CONCLUSIONS
My first impression is that people tend to remember authors rather than individual books. Only nine novels received multiple votes, but fifteen authors received multiple votes. Authors such as Chris Beckett, Ted Chiang, and Adam Roberts received multiple votes without any individual works being cited.
There is no clear evidence of recency bias, though the 2010s have almost twice as many votes as the 2000s.
Three individual novels clearly emerge as candidates for status as modern classics. The Hunger Games, by Suzanne Collins (2008), Children of Time, by Adrian Tchaikovsky (2015), and The Martian, by Andy Weir (2011). The same three authors emerge as candidates when votes for all books are tallied, and are joined by Martha Wells and Alastair Reynolds.
There is some correlation between votes received and nominations for major literary awards.
Several nominated authors mark important historical points. Suzanne Collins marks the early peak of the YA Dystopia trend. Hugh Howey and Andy Weir both represent an increased acceptance of self-published novels, though both were subsequently picked up by traditional publishing houses. Cixin Liu marks the first translated novel to win the Hugo Award for Best Novel, and a broader awareness of non-English science fiction.
In a possible case of respondent bias, the majority of nominated works are either hard SF or social SF. There is also a notable presence of new weird/science fantasy in the voting.
The most notable omission from these lists is John Scalzi, who received no votes in spite of a two-decade publishing history and a Hugo Award. Despite the apparent popularity of space opera in bookshops, the genre is represented mainly by James S. A. Corey’s The Expanse.
These are all initial findings pending further study and analysis of the data. I will leave you with the available data. If you have any thoughts on the matter, I encourage you to share them in the comments.
RAW DATA
Sources
- BlueSky
- OtherWorlds Discord Server (Home of SciFiMonth)
- Red Company Discord Server (Sun Eater Series Fan Server)
Most Frequently Nominated Books
- The Windup Girl, by Paolo Bacigalupi (2 votes)
- Wool, by Hugh Howey (2 votes)
- Ancillary Justice, by Ann Leckie (2 votes)
- The Three-Body Problem, by Cixin Liu (2 votes)
- Project Hail Mary, by Andy Weir (2 votes)
- All Systems Red, by Martha Wells (2 votes)
- The Hunger Games, by Suzanne Collins(3 votes)
- Children of Time, by Adrian Tchaikovsky (3 votes)
- The Martian, by Andy Weir (3 votes)
Most Frequently Nominated Authors
- Paolo Bacigalupi (2 votes)
- Chris Beckett (2 votes)
- Ted Chiang (2 votes)
- Hugh Howey (2 votes)
- Ann Leckie (2 votes)
- Cixin Liu (2 votes)
- Adam Roberts (2 votes)
- James S. A. Corey (2 votes)
- N. K. Jemisin (2 votes)
- Jeff VanderMeer (2 votes)
- Suzanne Collins (3 votes)
- Alastair Reynolds (3 votes)
- Adrian Tchaikovsky (3 votes)
- Martha Wells (3 votes)
- Andy Weir (6 votes)
Votes Per Year
- 2000: 1 vote
- 2001: 1 vote
- 2002: 2 votes
- 2003: 0 votes
- 2004: 1 vote
- 2005: 1 vote
- 2006: 1 vote
- 2007: 1 vote
- 2008: 4 votes
- 2009: 3 votes
- 2010: 0 votes
- 2011: 8 votes
- 2012: 0 votes
- 2013: 2 votes
- 2014: 4 votes
- 2015: 5 votes
- 2016: 1 vote
- 2017: 3 votes
- 2018: 0 votes
- 2019: 3 votes
- 2020: 3 votes
- 2021: 2 votes
- 2022: 0 votes
- 2023: 2 votes
- 2024: 0 votes
- 2025: 0 votes
At Boundary's Edge 